Researchers focus on understanding the nature of ecosystems and societies as well as explaining how paradigms change. These efforts are presented and disseminated through scholarly work in scientific literature. The pool of knowledge generated through databases allows one to track how our understanding changes and how paradigms shift through time. The present study is concerned with the domain of innovation policy, which is affected directly by societal and technological change and is a good archetype for demonstrating the scientific change perspective. In recent years, scientometrics has been frequently used to measure and analyze progress in science, technology and innovation. This study makes use of a combination of scientometric analysis and evolutionary framework analysis to demonstrate the evolution of innovation policy domain. Kuhn’s seminal approach is applied for classifying and interpreting the phases across the evolution of the domain within a 30-year timeframe. The analysis demonstrates that the innovation policy domain is at the “crisis stage” as a result of ongoing with transformations in the society, technology, economy and policy. These transformations affect both supply and demand sides of innovation and call for an evolution in the innovation policy domain. Although this by no means represents that the innovation policy domain is in a “deadlock”, the present study asserts that there is a new quest in innovation policy by adapting, re-framing or re-constructing the scope of the domain. The anticipated paradigm shift is expected to lead to a more de-centralized and distributed understanding of the world for innovation policy making.
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been considered as the future vision for the automotive industry. An increasing number of concepts and prototypes have been introduced in the last decade. In parallel with the technological development, recent discussions about global warming and climate change bring public support for emission free vehicles. Despite of the advancements and support, the speed of introduction of FCEVs is still not at the desirable levels. From a transition management perspective, the present paper seeks to answer the underlying factors behind the implementation of the FCEVs. The discussion goes beyond a technical one to cover broad factors and interests of stakeholders with an ‘eagle-eye view’. Following a discussion the key drivers of change for the FCEV sector and wild cards with disruptive effects, the paper proposes a strategic roadmap template to set an agenda for a successful transition towards FCEVs.
This paper considers the strategies for working with different data sources for identifying technology trends. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of technology monitoring results using various data collections (scientific publications, patents, media, foresight projects, conferences, international projects, dissertations and presentations) is conducted. Guidance on how to use them to ensure the greatest output is presented. Green energy is taken as an example for comparative analysis and provides improvements in reducing inputs (time) and increasing output (coverage). The factors that affect data processing results are considered and discussed to more efficiently use quantitative and qualitative procedures for identifying, correcting and updating technology trends. The results of the study can be interesting for government bodies financing foresight studies and setting priorities in science and technology, for companies scanning disruptive innovations in the markets to support their corporate strategies and academic community developing the methodology for technology trends monitoring.
This book provides an impressive overview of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnologies and biotechnologies, and their prospective applications. It identifies and describes existing and potential markets for emerging technologiy-based applications, and projects scenarios for macroeconomic development based on these technologies. Integrated roadmaps for the development of a nano- and bioindustry are shown and policy measures and corporate strategies developed to advance these technologies. These measures are illustrated using roadmaps and policy case studies.The book combines a practical, comprehensive overview of the technical side of emerging technologies and their applications in various fields with an analysis of market developments and characteristics.
The paper discloses a new approach to sectoral emerging technologies identification and their future development analysis. Proposed research strategy relies on a combination of traditional foresight methods with big-data-augmented science, technology and innovation (STI) landscape mapping. On the first step, the results of text-mining analysis present the ontology of currently emerging technologies in global agriculture and food (A&F) sector. On the second step, for these technologies with the usage of text-mining techniques were aggregated: a) future technological markets forecasts, b) parameters of their potential to bring answers to sectoral and national challenges. Based on this big-data-augmented analysis, prospective science and technology development areas for the Russian A&F sector were highlighted. The comparative benefits of the proposed approach for evidence-based STI policy and corporate strategic planning are shortly summed up in terms of its objectivity and comprehensive information sources coverage.
National science and technology priority-setting has been an important and regular exercise performed by developed and many developing countries. This is very relevant for the conservative energy industry with long investment cycles. The future of energy is shaped by today's investments in research and development.
The Strategy for Science and Technology Development of the Russian Federation (2016) features seven priorities, one of which is related to “the transition to environmentally friendly and resource-saving energy industry”. The paper describes the foresight study of this energy priority that was launched to identify the focus of related future comprehensive science and technology funding programs. The design, methods and outcomes of this study that frame the future science and technology development in Russia's energy industry are discussed together with research and policy implications.
This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region.
Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems.
The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems.
The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process.
Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations.
The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer.
The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.
The chapter describes the current position of renewables in the Russian energy sector in terms of capacities, the place of renewables in the energy mix, and the latest developments in the sector. Further, social and economic preconditions and effects (gains) stemming from a faster development and deployment of renewable energy in Russia are identified, including reliability of power supply and the cost of heat and power in different regions of the country, energy supply as a contribution to the quality of life, as well as negative impacts on environment and people’s health and conservation of fossil fuels. The authors offer a methodology for the assessment of the wind energy and solar PV technical potential, as well as actual calculations of various types of renewables technical potential in the Russian Federation. Finally, policy, social, and research implications of the findings are listed.
Roadmapping is a useful instrument for developing strategic measures. Despite the importance of customizing roadmaps to firm/industry specific managerial needs and environmental conditions, the existing literature has focused on the simplified roadmapping process. Little attention has been paid to the customization of roadmaps. Our proposed methodological approach, suggested through a case study, brings together several targeted roadmaps and integrates them into one overarching roadmap — the umbrella roadmap as a new flexible systemic tool. The integrated umbrella roadmap delivers a framework of the industry/company's overall expectations (trends, etc.), whereas targeted roadmaps focus on local targets for a specific product/technology.
Research on entrepreneurial personality traits has done a commendable job in developing theory and providing evidence for the consistent effects of the entrepreneurial trait profile (ETP) on various entrepreneurial outcomes. While research has established the fit between the extravert, conscientious and open traits and entrepreneurial intention (EI), the view that entrepreneurship may provide an alternative career path for people outside the norm has attracted increasing interest. In this study, we explore a counterweight to the dominant ‘superhero’ personality perspective by arguing that, in entrepreneurship, highly sensitive persons (HSPs) can attend to their own needs and skills, and turn their weaknesses into strengths. Sensory processing sensitivity (SPS) – a fundamental meta-personality trait – may provide the crucial piece in the personality puzzle related to opportunity recognition ability (ORA) and the intention to act entrepreneurially. We adopt a person-environment fit approach and employ fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). We find that combinations of either SPS or ETP and ORA are sufficient conditions for EI. This study contributes to the literature on entrepreneurial traits by inviting reconsideration of the stereotypical view of extrovert and open entrepreneurs and acknowledging the strength of a ‘weak’ trait.
This paper is about the policy concept of smart specialization (RIS3) and its potential for application in emerging economies. This is an important issue as emerging economies continue to struggle against the forces of globalization and targeted investments through RIS3 strategies that may help them boost their (regional) innovation economies. Thus far, RIS3 has mostly been implemented by industrialized EU economies. Due to the structural differences, success in emerging economies may require more extensive groundwork prior to the implementation of an RIS3 strategy. This is specifically noted in the Brazilian example: smart specialization requires careful planning, the country needs to address some of its general issues with lagging innovation before it can focus on successfully implementing an RIS3 strategy. We believe that such an approach would be appropriate for other countries at similar stages of economic development.
The technological foresight plays a significant role in promotion of the emerging technologies. The paper investigates technological prospects of priorities implementation indicated in the ‘Strategy for the Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation’. More precisely, we examine the advanced digital and intelligent production technologies deployment by applying foresight methods and new solutions such as an advanced text-mining. The main goal of the study is to define a range of the most promising technologies with respect to markets and products within the priority. We identified five large cross-cutting areas manifesting physical and digital convergence. These clusters include computer modelling and flexible manufacturing systems from the production side, and sensor technologies, virtual/augmented reality, the Internet of Things from the IT side. The revealed technological trends correspond to global patterns and unveil a range of sectoral applications. Product development technologies are confessed to be the core of digital manufacturing. During the analysis we uncovered 350 prospective products and services that should be exposed to further expert evaluation. Our results offer a new insight on science and technology policy-making by adjusting technology development across industries. A suggested framework allows expanding current boundaries of forecasting activities at the national level in order to boost Russian scientific performance.
Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15-20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia’s renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study’s policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision.
This study is dedicated to estimating the impact of currency risk on the cost of equity in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Our contribution to the literature is that we have obtained evidence on the pricing of exchange rate risk in developing countries, which at the time of writing is quite scarce. This scarcity is one motivation for our research, which is dedicated to BRICS capital markets, though with the Chinese stock market excluded since it is heavily regulated. The aim of this research is to determine whether in emerging countries stock markets currency risk is a significant factor that influences the cost of equity capital in a company. Changes in the value of exchange rates can impact the cash flows of a firm and its exposure to risk, and hence, the value of the company. In our research we will discuss the influence of exchange rate movements on the value of firms through their impact on the cost of equity. Specifically, we investigate whether companies that report substantial currency gains or losses have to pay a higher required rate of return on equity. Furthermore, in this study we make an attempt to estimate currency risk premia for exposure to appreciation and depreciation of currency separately, and try to identify possible differences. For each country, three analytical models that extend the Fama-French Three Factor Model (by incorporating currency risk) are estimated. We use an equal-weighted portfolio approach to identify currency risk factors. These factors are estimated either by using information about the ratio of currency gains to sales, or the magnitude of covariation between equity returns and exchange rate changes. In the second case appreciation and depreciation of domestic currency against the US dollar is considered separately. The results indicate that in Russia, firms which report substantial currency losses pay a positive risk premium, while in Brazil, India and South Africa companies with significantly positive or negative currency gains pay a lower required return on equity than firms with almost zero currency gains. Finally, we attempt to explain the estimation results using a sectoral breakdown of product exports for each country of the data sample.
Technological development and digitalization plays a crucial role in financial sector by allowing firms to create value in a rapidly changing environment. The acquisitions of firms related to financial technologies are one of the ways to obtain vital knowledge. In order to identify the fintech companies we are looking at firms that are involved in business activities in both the IT and financial sectors. By examining the growing role of fintech firms in the recent mergers and acquisitions from an investor point of view, this paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the post-acquisition performance of the acquirer firms measured by abnormal returns. We discovered significant positive average abnormal return after acquisition of fintech companies in the short-term and negative average abnormal return in the long-term using event studymethodology. The specifics of cross-border acquisitions, the level of the domestic market development of the acquirer, and other characteristics of M&A deals are considered in order to explain the reaction of investors to announcements of fintech firms’ acquisitions. The determinants of corresponding M&A deals in emerging and developed markets were revealed.