Publications

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This book provides an impressive overview of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnologies and biotechnologies, and their prospective applications. It identifies and describes existing and potential markets for emerging technologiy-based applications, and projects scenarios for macroeconomic development based on these technologies. Integrated roadmaps for the development of a nano- and bioindustry are shown and policy measures and corporate strategies developed to advance these technologies. These measures are illustrated using roadmaps and policy case studies.The book combines a practical, comprehensive overview of the technical side of emerging technologies and their applications in various fields with an analysis of market developments and characteristics.

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The chapter describes the current position of renewables in the Russian energy sector in terms of capacities, the place of renewables in the energy mix, and the latest developments in the sector. Further, social and economic preconditions and effects (gains) stemming from a faster development and deployment of renewable energy in Russia are identified, including reliability of power supply and the cost of heat and power in different regions of the country, energy supply as a contribution to the quality of life, as well as negative impacts on environment and people’s health and conservation of fossil fuels. The authors offer a methodology for the assessment of the wind energy and solar PV technical potential, as well as actual calculations of various types of renewables technical potential in the Russian Federation. Finally, policy, social, and research implications of the findings are listed.

Roadmapping is a useful instrument for developing strategic measures. Despite the importance of customizing roadmaps to firm/industry specific managerial needs and environmental conditions, the existing literature has focused on the simplified roadmapping process. Little attention has been paid to the customization of roadmaps. Our proposed methodological approach, suggested through a case study, brings together several targeted roadmaps and integrates them into one overarching roadmap — the umbrella roadmap as a new flexible systemic tool. The integrated umbrella roadmap delivers a framework of the industry/company's overall expectations (trends, etc.), whereas targeted roadmaps focus on local targets for a specific product/technology.

Internet of Things (IoT) technologies are of particular interest for telecommunication companies that can significantly affect the interaction of economic agents. As a result of the growth in the number of connected devices, the introduction of cloud services and business applications it became possible to combine equipment, information systems and management systems into a single communication network which in turn gave impetus to the development of the Internet of Things. The basis for the development of the Internet of Things is modern data transmission technologies including IoT Wireless Networks. There are, currently, a number of wireless IoT technologies which have different characteristics. In this regard, it is of interest to identify the most promising technologies that will form the basis of the infrastructure for the development of the IoT ecosystem. This paper develops an assessment model for the application potential of IoT wireless network technologies for the telecommunication sector. LPWAN, 4G and Wi-Fi were identified as the most promising technologies. The majority of the assessment criteria are applicable to other telecommunication technologies.

The technological foresight plays a significant role in promotion of the emerging technologies. The paper investigates technological prospects of priorities implementation indicated in the ‘Strategy for the Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation’. More precisely, we examine the advanced digital and intelligent production technologies deployment by applying foresight methods and new solutions such as an advanced text-mining. The main goal of the study is to define a range of the most promising technologies with respect to markets and products within the priority. We identified five large cross-cutting areas manifesting physical and digital convergence. These clusters include computer modelling and flexible manufacturing systems from the production side, and sensor technologies, virtual/augmented reality, the Internet of Things from the IT side. The revealed technological trends correspond to global patterns and unveil a range of sectoral applications. Product development technologies are confessed to be the core of digital manufacturing. During the analysis we uncovered 350 prospective products and services that should be exposed to further expert evaluation. Our results offer a new insight on science and technology policy-making by adjusting technology development across industries. A suggested framework allows expanding current boundaries of forecasting activities at the national level in order to boost Russian scientific performance.

Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15-20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia’s renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study’s policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision.

This study is dedicated to estimating the impact of currency risk on the cost of equity in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Our contribution to the literature is that we have obtained evidence on the pricing of exchange rate risk in developing countries, which at the time of writing is quite scarce. This scarcity is one motivation for our research, which is dedicated to BRICS capital markets, though with the Chinese stock market excluded since it is heavily regulated. The aim of this research is to determine whether in emerging countries stock markets currency risk is a significant factor that influences the cost of equity capital in a company. Changes in the value of exchange rates can impact the cash flows of a firm and its exposure to risk, and hence, the value of the company. In our research we will discuss the influence of exchange rate movements on the value of firms through their impact on the cost of equity. Specifically, we investigate whether companies that report substantial currency gains or losses have to pay a higher required rate of return on equity. Furthermore, in this study we make an attempt to estimate currency risk premia for exposure to appreciation and depreciation of currency separately, and try to identify possible differences. For each country, three analytical models that extend the Fama-French Three Factor Model (by incorporating currency risk) are estimated. We use an equal-weighted portfolio approach to identify currency risk factors. These factors are estimated either by using information about the ratio of currency gains to sales, or the magnitude of covariation between equity returns and exchange rate changes. In the second case appreciation and depreciation of domestic currency against the US dollar is considered separately. The results indicate that in Russia, firms which report substantial currency losses pay a positive risk premium, while in Brazil, India and South Africa companies with significantly positive or negative currency gains pay a lower required return on equity than firms with almost zero currency gains. Finally, we attempt to explain the estimation results using a sectoral breakdown of product exports for each country of the data sample. 

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Effective management of scientific and technological advancement of Russian agricultural production requires the anticipating monitoring of the existing informational and analytic media in the top-priority spheres of the agriculture. Increasing necessity in the calculation and application of objective and reliable analytical data for the strategic decision making at different levels is forcing the integration of applied analytical tools into analytical systems. These tools are versatile and primarily based on the automatic data processing. The analytical system of text mining is presented as an example of intellectual data analysis and its opportunities

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been considered as the future vision for the automotive industry. An increasing number of concepts and prototypes have been introduced in the last decade. In parallel with the technological development, recent discussions about global warming and climate change bring public support for emission free vehicles. Despite of the advancements and support, the speed of introduction of FCEVs is still not at the desirable levels. From a transition management perspective, the present paper seeks to answer the underlying factors behind the implementation of the FCEVs. The discussion goes beyond a technical one to cover broad factors and interests of stakeholders with an ‘eagle-eye view’. Following a discussion the key drivers of change for the FCEV sector and wild cards with disruptive effects, the paper proposes a strategic roadmap template to set an agenda for a successful transition towards FCEVs.